If you think it’s hot in Africa right now, be prepared for temperatures to reach over 42℃ over longer periods of time if global warming is not limited to 1.5°C
These soaring temperatures will hit hardest the most vulnerable on the continent - the young and elderly - with predictions of 360 million Africans facing these scorchers by 2100 if global warming hits 1.8℃.
This is according to the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II report that was published on Monday.
The report recognises the interdependence of climate, ecosystems, biodiversity and human societies and integrates knowledge more strongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences than earlier IPCC assessments.
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Although Africa has contributed among the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, the report says key development sectors in Africa have already experienced widespread losses and damages attributable to anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change, including biodiversity loss, water shortages, reduced food production, loss of lives and reduced economic growth.
The assessment of climate change impacts and risks as well as adaptation is set against concurrently unfolding non-climatic global trends such as biodiversity loss, overall unsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem degradation, rapid urbanisation, human demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities and a pandemic to name a few.
The report stresses that limiting global warming to 1.5°C is expected to substantially reduce damages to African economies, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems compared to higher levels of global warming.
Africa has borne the brunt of climate change impacts and is projected to carry a heavier burden if global temperature increases are not kept below the 1.5°C threshold. Below are some of the impacts and future projections as stated in the new IPCC report.
Ecosystems
African biodiversity loss is projected to be widespread and will escalate with every 0.5°C increase above present-day global warming. More than 50% of animal and plant species assessed for the report are projected to lose over one-third of their population or habitat ranges while at 2°C will place 7-18% of species at risk of extinction. An estimated 90% of East African coral reefs are projected to be severely degraded by bleaching.
Water
Recent extreme variability in rainfall and river discharge across Africa have had largely negative and multi-sector impacts across water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and processing. Projected changes present heightened cross-cutting risks to water-dependent sectors, and require planning under deep uncertainty for the wide range of extremes expected in future. These extremes could be widespread droughts or heavy rainfall.
Food
African agricultural productivity growth has decreased by 34% since 1961 due to climate change, more than any other global region. Future warming will negatively affect food systems in Africa by shortening growing seasons and increasing water stress.
Global warming above 2°C will result in yield reductions for staple crops across most of Africa compared to 2005 yields. Climate change poses a significant threat to African marine and freshwater fisheries. Under 1.7°C global warming, reduced fish harvests could leave 1.2–70 million people in Africa vulnerable to iron deficiencies, up to 188 million for vitamin A deficiencies, and 285 million for vitamin B12 and omega-3 fatty acids by mid-century.
Cities & Settlements
Exposure of people, assets and infrastructure to climate hazards is on the rise in Africa. This exposure is compounded by rapid urbanisation, infrastructure deficits and growing populations in informal settlements.
High population growth and urbanisation in low-elevation coastal zones will be a major driver of exposure to sea level rise in the next 50 years. By 2030, 108 - 116 million people will be exposed to sea level rise in Africa (compared to 54 million in 2000), increasing to 190 - 245 million by 2060.
A relatively low population growth scenario will see sensitive groups, children under 5 and adults over 64 years old, exposed to heat waves of at least 15 days above 42℃ in African cities. This is projected to increase from around 27 million in 2010 to 360 million by 2100 for 1.8℃ global warming and 440 million if temperatures exceed 4℃ global warming
Economies
Climate change has reduced economic growth across Africa with the report highlighting an increase in income inequality between African countries and those in temperate, Northern Hemisphere climates. Across nearly all African countries, GDP per capita is projected to be at least 5% higher by 2050 and 10–20% higher by 2100 if global warming is held to 1.5°C versus 2°C.
Heritage
African cultural heritage is already at risk from climate hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion and most African heritage sites are neither prepared for, nor adapted to, future climate change. Around 190 other spectacular heritage sites that line Africa's coasts will be at risk of severe flooding and erosion in the next 30 years, according to a recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Health
Mortality and morbidity rates are expected to escalate with further global warming, placing additional strain on African health and economic systems. A 1.5°C warming is projected to increase the distribution and seasonal transmission of vector-borne diseases, exposing tens of millions more people, mostly in East and Southern Africa. Warming above 1.5°C global warming the risk of heat-related deaths rises sharply, with at least 15 additional deaths per 100,000 annually across large parts of Africa.
Migration
The majority of climate-related migration in Africa occurred within countries or between neighbouring countries with over 2.6 million and 3.4 million new weather-related displacements occurring in sub-Saharan Africa in 2018 and 2019. Climate change is projected to increase migration between African countries and out of Africa into more temperate regions in the North. With 1.7°C global warming by 2050, up to 40 million people could migrate internally in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing to 56–86 million for 2.5°C.