Cape Town - South Africa’s grain and livestock farmers have been told they must adapt in the face of changing weather patterns, including a predicted drier El Niño expected in the 2023/24 summer season.
FNB senior agricultural economist Paul Makube said that in the coming months and years, changing global weather patterns would be likely to have significant consequences for South African farmers, especially those involved in livestock and grain production.
Makube said the changing weather patterns would almost certainly add upward pressure on costs for farmers and food prices for consumers, further fuelling concerns about food insecurity.
“Not so much in terms of availability, but more so due to unaffordability.”
He said after enjoying three years of abundant rains and favourable conditions due to La Niña, South Africa was now heading into an El Niño phase.
He said this typically translated to drier weather and created uncertainty for farmers, potentially negatively impacting yields.
Makube’s remarks come as weather experts who participated in the El Niño 2023 Summit at the University of Pretoria on Monday warned that they had seen an emergence of telltale signs that a strong El Niño was developing in 2023.
The scientists said this could have implications for agriculture and food security.
Agricultural Research Council senior researcher Mokhele Moeletsi said: “We can see that we are slowly shifting towards drier conditions, which is an indication of the onset of El Niño.”
However, in an article published on the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa’s (Agribiz) website, Agribiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said forecasts of an El Niño occurrence in the 2023/24 summer season did not necessarily equate to a bad agricultural season.
Sihlobo said: “The upcoming season of possible below-normal rainfall follows a rare consecutive four years of heavy rains that have improved soil moisture and natural grazing veld.
“This means there is a natural cushion for agricultural activity even if the rains are below average (typically about 500mm) this summer.”
He said, however, that it would be necessary for the rain that did fall to occur in critical periods, such as the seed germination and pollination stages of growth, which were essential for crop growing.
With regard to steps being taken by the province, Agriculture MEC Ivan Meyer said: “Early warnings are sent to farmers on the weather conditions, warning them to put measures in place during extreme heat, etc.”
Meyer said considering the high rainfall received in the last week, most of the dams in the Berg, Breede and Olifants Doring catchments were at 100%.
He said it was predicted that irrigation farmers in these three catchments would not be subjected to water restriction during the irrigation season from November to April.
However, he said in the Gouritz catchment the dam levels were still very low and would in all likelihood be subjected to water restrictions, which would impact production levels in that catchment.