By Melissa Fourie
This week, the Presidential Climate Commission releases the first State of Climate Action Report, which was prepared with inputs from more than 47 researchers and experts across sectors.
A compelling message for the Government of National Unity (GNU) and all stakeholders from the report is that while we have strong commitments and public support for climate action and facilitating a just transition, progress is not at the pace and scale required.
Consensus among the authors is that necessary climate action is hindered by incoherent policies and actions, weak governance, insufficient finance and a lack of appropriately structured projects to match the considerable public and private finance that is available.
Another component of the State of Climate Action Report is a nationally representative survey, undertaken by the Human Sciences Research Council in 2023, showing that climate change is real for South Africans. Seventy-six percent of respondents reported being affected by climate impacts, and 78% being worried about climate change impact on themselves and their families.
The survey found that South Africans approve of efforts to move away from coal to other forms of energy like solar and wind. More than half think the transition away from coal will help alleviate load shedding, with 40% agreeing the shift to cleaner energy will reduce electricity costs and grow the economy. The broad support for more renewable energy was also evident in the 2024 election campaigns of many political parties.
Only state-directed implementation can bring it back on track.
The report highlights how the lack of consensus about the pace of coal phaseout has prevented us from taking the necessary measures to prepare for and enable the transition. Examples include the inexplicable delay in the release of the Renewable Energy Masterplan, and the failure significantly increased the share of electricity from renewables in the draft 2023 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The incoherence has also contributed to delays in implementation of programmes aimed at social justice, as we have seen at Komati.
Fortunately, recent statements by President Cyril Ramaphosa indicate a commitment of a significant uptick in a renewable energy build, with the president describing it as an “enormous opportunity for inclusive growth”, as well as confirming the GNU’s commitment to a green manufacturing sector with significant job creation opportunities.
That uptick in renewable energy needs to become turbo charged. Despite the “behind the meter” boom in solar PV in response to load shedding, South Africa has fallen calamitously behind targets for renewable energy – not only to meet our global climate targets, but to fill in the capacity lost as coal plants inevitably come to the end of their functional lives. In 2023, we advised the government that, in a robust growth scenario, South Africa needed to build 50-60GW of renewables by 2030.
It is essential that this renewable energy revolution happens in a way that benefits justice in the transition. For one, a big renewable energy build must reach the coal areas: it is high time for a Mpumalanga bid window under the South African Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. Not only do we have grid space in Mpumalanga, but it will generate economic activity and hope for those who do not see hope in the transition.
Manufacturing is a key part of the inclusive growth and implementing the Renewable Energy Masterplan is key. The benefits of cheaper, cleaner generation must reach those who cannot afford electricity. Access to electricity is a precondition for nutrition, health, education and livelihoods.
Numerous studies show that a just transition would make our economy more resilient and strengthen our global competitiveness, and create opportunities to reduce poverty, inequality and unemployment. While we celebrate our coal and gas resources, our solar and wind resources are superior and exceptional by global standards.
The report notes that while South Africa is on track to meet its 2025 GHG emissions target under the Paris Agreement, we will fail to meet our 2030 target if we do not act far more ambitiously – particularly in the electricity and transport sectors.
International climate targets are controversial in South Africa, and the argument that large and historical emitters in the global north must do far more, and with more speed, is well-founded. However, focus on targets sometimes obscures the real win, which is ensuring that South Africans can participate in the benefits of decarbonisation.
The risk of failure to decarbonise fast enough.
Our delayed decarbonisation also ignores the egregious violation of human rights that is the air pollution from our coal plants and coal-based industry in the Vaal, Highveld, and the Waterberg.
For how long can we continue to sacrifice lives, health and well-being in these areas without consequence? Big polluters reliant on coal must all be aware of the growing risk of civil claims for damages from the victims of their pollution.
Finally, the report red flags South Africa’s terribly delayed response on adaptation. Our lofty goals in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy remains neglected and underfunded, with the consequences painfully evident as our municipalities are regularly battered by rainfall events, floods and drought, with little support towards recovery or resilience.
Supporting the institutional integrity, capacity and resources of local government for adaptation and disaster response should be prioritised and remain a key focus of the Presidential Climate Commission.
Melissa Fourie is a civil society commissioner on the Presidential Climate Commission.
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