Amilcar Cabral, who was the secretary-general of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and the Cape Verde Island, once said: “Always bear in mind that the people are not fighting for ideas, for the things in anyone’s head. They are fighting to win material benefits, to live better and in peace, to see their lives go forward, to guarantee the future of their children.”
To a person who has not internalised the words of Cabral, a consistently above 90% victory in an election is evidence of lack of democracy.
The recent sweeping victory for President Paul Kagame of Rwanda at 99.18% has created a new term – poll dictatorship, although one wonders how you dictate a voter turn-out of 98.02% if not explained by the will of the people to affirm their choice of leadership. I proffer a different opinion as one who has looked at Rwanda through the lens of statistical evidence, having been a statistician-general of South Africa and worked quite closely with the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda.
If you have lived under constant genocidal threat and ultimately, it materialises into the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi that in 100 days wiped out more than a tenth of the population, you have to ask yourself what could be worse – is there anything you can ever fear or be afraid of? Based on what Rwandans experienced, I would argue that it is impossible to intimidate them. Anyone threatening Rwandans by deception, coercion or other acts faces an uphill battle because for them, it cannot be worse than what they witnessed.
So, the results of the poll in Rwanda speak not to the fear of what others think of as a dictator, but the fearlessness of fear because what fear can be left in you when you saw and endured the worst? The poll, rather than reflect fear, speaks to and affirms what Rwandans experienced out of a condition that swept their country in a blink of an eye and what progressively and cumulatively restored their dignity in the past 30 years. Why would you gamble that dignity ever again?
Kagame, against all odds delivered on what Cabral referenced. Many do not remember or conveniently forget that Kagame took six years from 1994 to 2000, before he could ascend to be the president of Rwanda even after winning the liberation struggle that lasted over four years. Perhaps what we need to ask him is what preoccupied him in those six years – perhaps therein lies the secret of his transformative leadership so overwhelmingly appreciated by the Rwandese and surprising to others.
A statistical visit to count a Thousand Hills
In January 2007 was the year I first visited Rwanda. This was on the occasion that Rwanda hosted the bean counters of Africa under the banner of the Africa Symposium for Statistical Development (ASSD) over which I presided for 12 years. This followed on the inaugural session in South Africa in January 2006.
Kagame was so determined to drive the statistical agenda in Rwanda that he had agreed to attend the inaugural session of the ASSD in South Africa. Even though this presidential participation did not eventually materialise at the time, it was sufficient motivation for Minister Trevor Manuel to wisely advise that the next ASSD should be hosted in Rwanda.
Indeed, the second ASSD was opened by Kagame himself in Kigali. In his address the president led from the front on the subject of the importance of statistics and the strategic role it continued to play in Rwanda. I had little doubt that the National Statistics Institute of Rwanda was on the ready for greater heights. On the eve of the second ASSD the delegates were addressed on the history of Rwanda, the experience of the genocide against the Tutsi as well as the national unity programme. The unity programme was also displayed in all the cultural events we attended during our stay in Rwanda.
At the end of a traumatising journey through the genocide museum, it was hard to believe that a reconciliation programme was feasible. But the Rwandans showed determination to give birth to a new nation, building a different Rwanda. They drew from their cultural systems of justice and the Gacaca courts proved that they were not only bringing positive results in the atonement of crime, but facilitated peers to bring about remedy and reconciliation through the provision of grassroots-level justice for many of the cases.
What is behind Rwanda’s transformation?
Transforming an organisation starts with changing its culture, and the same holds true for society. Before 1994, Rwanda was mired in a culture of impunity, but today it upholds accountability and the rule of law. The previous culture of entitlement and laissez-faire attitudes has evolved into one of hard work and inclusion. Nepotism and mediocrity in public service have been replaced by merit-based teams, driven by performance contracts and enhanced by technological innovations for efficient service delivery.
Rather than following a prescribed rule book for development, the government has looked inward, drawing from historical context to develop home-grown solutions for societal and developmental challenges. A key aspect of this journey has been the continuous renewal of the ruling party and institutions, actively involving the youth as new talents emerge to ensure sustainable social progress and human development.
Kagame, advocating for a growth mindset, famously said: “Work hard until it pains because poverty hurts more.” This message has resonated across society, igniting a culture of doing hard things and smart work. Kagame’s government has prioritised security, national unity, effective governance, rapid development, and zero tolerance for corruption. The culture of meritocracy and performance-based benefits has transformed perceptions of both public and private sectors.
Transformation also goes with tangible results. Rwanda’s economic transformation has been impressive, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates averaging 7–8.5% annually over the past three decades. According to the World Bank, Rwanda’s GDP per capita has increased ninefold between 1994 and 2023. By focusing on technology-led development, Rwanda has positioned itself as a tech hub in Africa, with groundbreaking innovations in service delivery, such as using drones to deliver medical supplies to remote health centres and utilising the digital platform Irembo for efficient citizen services.
This is evidenced by the fact that Rwanda’s economy has shifted from being predominantly agrarian to a service-based economy. Services now contribute more than 50% of GDP, with agriculture and industry making up the balance.
Perfect vision through the lens of an outsider
I have visited Rwanda frequently since my first visit in January 2007 and I was back there on July 26–27. I am amazed by how Rwanda has successfully heeded the prescripts of Cabral when he warned politicians that they should, “Always remember that the people are not fighting for ideas, nor for what is in men’s minds.
“The people fight and accept the sacrifices demanded by the struggle in order to gain material advantages, to live better and in peace, to benefit from progress, and for the better future of their children. National liberation, the struggle against colonialism, the construction of peace, progress and independence are hollow words devoid of any significance unless they can be translated into a real improvement of living conditions.”
Nowhere has this been demonstrated with distinction as has been done in Rwanda. The evidence of progress after a genocidal calamity of unimaginable proportions shows the truth and possibility of what Morena Mohlomi, the 18th- century sage of the Ngolile Leadership Academy in the Caledon Valley of the then Lesotho, when he said: “A responsible leader pursues peaceful and productive alliances, accommodates stakeholders, and uses new instruments of power to create intergenerational value.”
The political renewal project, the abhorrence of corruption and incompetence and the creation of a developmental state using new instruments of power show that democracy can and does deliver spectacular affirmation in reality and at the polls.
Rwanda’s journey demonstrates that even from the darkest moments, with the right mindset and courage, selfless leadership with a vision supported by action, a nation can rise and thrive. As Rwanda continues on this path, its focus must remain on sustainable and inclusive growth, ensuring that every Rwandan benefits from the nation’s progress.
Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa.
BUSINESS REPORT